USD/JPY – Dollar Keeps on Rolling as Markets Eye Key US Releases

The US dollar continues to hit new levels against the yen, as USD/JPY was trading in the 102.60 range in Thursday’s European session. The US released disappointing inflation and manufacturing data, and will try to turn things around on Thursday, with the release of four major events – Building Permits, Core CPI, Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. In Japan, Preliminary GDP hit a four-month high. The sole Japanese release on Thursday is Core Machinery Orders.

There was disappointment on Wednesday for US numbers. PPI, a key inflation indicator, declined  by 0.7%, missing the estimate of -0.6%. This was the second consecutive decline. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, as underscored by the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which slid from 3.1 points to -1.4, way off the estimate of 3.6. This marked the third straight month that the indicator has fallen short of the estimate. In Japan, Preliminary GDP recorded a gain of 0.9%, beating the forecast of 0.7%. Revised  Industrial Production also looked good, climbing to 0.9%. The estimate stood at 0.2%. Japan continues to struggle with deflation, despite the strenuous efforts of the Bank of Japan. The GDP Price Index declined 1.2%, missing the estimate of -1.0%.

The dollar has shown some broad strength against the major currencies, in part due to speculation that the Federal Reserve might terminate its current round of quantitative easing, thanks to an improving employment picture in the US. The Fed has not given any clues that it might scale back QE, which involves asset purchases of $85 billion every month. However, if the US recovery shows stronger signs of recovery, pressure will increase on the Fed to ease up on the QE, which would be dollar-positive. Any statements from the Fed regarding QE will likely have an impact on the movement of USD/JPY

 

USD/JPY for Wednesday, May 16, 2013

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/JPY May 16 at 11:25 GMT

USD/JPY 102.58 H: 102.68 L: 101.97 

 

USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
100.54 101.81 102.57 103.75 104.94 105.87

 

USD/JPY continues to move higher, and is trading in the mid-102 range. The pair is facing resistance at 103.75. This is followed by resistance at 104.95. On the downside, the pair is testing support at 102.57. This line could fall if the yen can muster some strength. This is followed by a support level at 101.87.

  • Current range: 102.57 to 103.75

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 102.57, 101.81, 100.54, 100 and 99.57
  • Above: 103.75, 104.94, 105.87 and 106.55

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY is showing almost no change in the Thursday session. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which is not showing much movement. The ratio remains evenly divided between open long and short positions, indicating a split among traders as to what to expect next from the volatile pair.

USD/JPY continues to trade at multi-year highs, as it trades in the mid-102 range. We could see some increased volatility later in the day, as the US releases four major events.

 

USD/JPY Fundamentals

  • 11:45 US FOMC Member Eric Rosengren Speaks.
  • 12:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 0.94M.
  • 12:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 332K.
  • 12:30 US CPI. Estimate -0.3%.
  • 12:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 0.98M.
  • 14:00 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 2.5 points.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 96B.
  • 16:30 US FOMC Member Sarah Bloom Rosengren Speaks.
  • 23:50 Japanese Core Machinery Orders. Estimate 3.1%.

 

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.