U.S. shale oil will help meet most of the world’s new oil demand in the next five years, even if the global economy picks up steam, leaving the need for OPEC crude barely changed from today’s levels, the West’s energy agency said on Tuesday.
The prediction by the International Energy Agency (IEA) came in its closely watched semi-annual report, which analyses mid-term global oil supply and demand trends.
“Following several years of stronger-than-expected North American supply growth, the shockwaves of rising U.S. shale gas and light tight oil and Canadian oil sands production are reaching virtually all recesses of the global oil market,” the IEA said.
It said it expected global oil demand to rise 8 percent between 2012 and 2018 to reach 96.7 million barrels per day (bpd) based on a fairly optimistic International Monetary Fund’s global economic growth assumption of between 3.0 and 4.5 percent a year during the period.
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