US Market Roundup: Market inching higher but bulls haven’t won.

USD Basket

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USD inched higher, pushing above 0.92 level. Aussie was the biggest loser against USD yesterday while EUR/USD gained marginally. Is this rally from Sep 16th low due to recovering US economy, or safe haven flow due to fears from Euro-Zone, or perhaps less likely but still a plausible explanation: recovery of strength from overselling due to QE3 – typical sell the rumor buy the news behavior.

Gold/USD H1

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Gold is still trading in a very tight range between 1,770 to 1,780. Yesterday’s break below 1,775 didn’t create a new trading range but price simply move back to trading mostly between 1,775 and 1,780. Stability in Gold prices around this area should be reasonably expected unless the Fed does announce new plans unexpectedly.

DJI Futures H1

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Relatively tight range found in DJI yesterday. As long as price trade above the support region around 13,500, bulls may wish to test today’s H5 which is around the previous Swing High on 1st Oct. That is not an impossible task as H5 is only 60 points away from our current price level, with DJI having an ATR of more than 100 easily (current 14 days ATR is at 114 while recent high is 173). However price may find some resistance around 13,575 – 13,600 region which was the post QE3 high. Failing to push up above and maintaining it may potentially form an Eve-Eve double top on the daily chart.

S&P500 Futures H1

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Looking more robust than DJI, Traders might treat any move above 1,457 (recent swing high) as a bullish breakout. However this bullish breakout might be very short-lived due to the same overhead resistance that DJI is facing – Post QE3 top and consolidation area between 1,457 and 1,475. An Eve-Eve double top could also be forming should price push up but unable to sustain itself.
Bottomline:

Currently the 1st Presidential Debate is ongoing between incumbent Obama and contender Romney. Though the likelihood of  either of them shaking up the market by what they speak is low, US Futures prices are certainly not hating what they’re speaking, with prices of S&P and DJI breaking Yesterday’s high just as this commentary is being written. This could be a welcome change to the mostly depressing Asian session for the past 2 days. If we close Asian Session on a more upbeat note, this may perhaps encourage the bulls during Europe and US sessions to push further.

 

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